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Steady As She Goes
We are 27 quarters into the current economic expansion, albeit the weakest on record with a historically low 2.1% average annual GDP growth rate. The following table summarizes the duration and growth...
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Are There Monsters Under My Bed?
Warren Buffett once said of investing, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” This contrarian perspective fairly describes my growing unease with the U.S. economy, much...
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“Oh You Don’t Know The Shape I’m In”– US Economy
A line from the 1970 hit single by The Band lamented “oh, you don’t know the shape I’m in”. In late 2007 it wouldn’t have been surprising to hear that comment mumbled from the mouths of a wide swath of...
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Firing on all Cylinders
Generally speaking, the economy is firing on all cylinders as evidenced by S&P 500 25% earnings growth and 8% revenue growth in Q1 2018. Business leaders are feeling optimistic as capital spending...
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Has the Keg Run Dry?
Has the keg gone dry? Back in my (much, much) younger days I enjoyed a good party and had the staying power of a marathoner to last well into the wee hours. However when the keg went dry it was time...
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Flaps Down…
Although Q4 2012 ended with a whimper as GDP growth was a microscopic 0.1%; the consensus among 40 economists polled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia (those optimistic buggers), was for an...
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A Fork In The Road
As one contemplates the strength of current and prospective macroeconomic conditions it is important to discount the feeling of goodwill on Wall St. engendered by a stock market which has proceeded up...
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Now Playing: A Greek Economic Tragedy
Before addressing our views on the US economy, I wanted to share a brief rant on Greece for which I will apologize in advance. I have been following this Greek tragedy with morbid fascination. In a...
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Healthier Consumer = Slowing Economy?
Various measures of employment and personal income, while arguably uninspiring for a recovery, point to improving economic health for the U.S. consumer. More specifically, first time jobless claims...
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Consumer Continues To Carry The Load
Let’s get the bad news out of the way first. Q1 2016 GDP % growth rate was a dismal .8% and is reflective of an economy losing steam as suggested by the downward trend in GDP as presented below: The...
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